Listening to the episode a couple of weeks ago about the changes in secondary market sales really made me think of both the primary and secondary market. I'd be interested to learn more about the macro primary market trends. The sales of high volume whiskies obviously underpin a lot of activity in the upper markets, but with the cost of living squeezing people's wallets, do those bulk labels still see a similar throughput or are customers leaving the category more generally? In the enthusiast realms, if people are buying less, or buying cheaper, or not chasing those limited release bottles any more, there will be some inertia in the supply side and bottles lingering on shelves. I wonder if this will cause some releases to be put on hold or dropped all together if that cash cow is receding. The secondary whisky market could be split into buy to drink and buy to invest/collect, with the former the home of flippers chasing those limited bottles, but as the interview with Nobel and Co showed, they seem to be moving on (yay!) to other things. Since the markets are moving away from whisky as an asset class, and higher interest rates are making other assets or financial things I don't understand more appealing, we could see over supply as people try to monitise their collection before prices drop lower, helping push prices lower... One thing that struck me though, unlike other types of enthusiast assets like cars or watches, whisky can not be enjoyed with a residual value. A percentage of whisky at auction will never come back to sale as it's been drunk, which must make the whisky auction business difficult as you're missing a middle ground. Sure, they'll churn though Maker's Mark Cellar Aged - which I really need to find a bottle of - making a small commission on each one, and Black Bowmores and Yamazaki 50s will be traded like NASDAQ stocks, but there's no middle area where someone will push financially to buy a £1000 bottle, with the expectation of buying able to resell it after a couple of years for £800 having enjoyed drinking it in the mean time. So again, looking around, I'm seeing this split in the luxury industry where most people are looking to pay less, while the wealthy are having more choice and people making products to seek that market. It will be interesting to see how spending trends play out too. If people are buying less and buying cheaper, that could also mean they stick with more known distilleries making it harder for newer distilleries - who in my opinion have to sell at higher prices for younger whisky to try and manage cash flow - to shift product at prices they've been enjoying. Meanwhile the headline bottles in exceptional decanters will continue because the volumes are small, the PR value is big and there are still people out there with deep enough pockets to buy them or stock them in bars. How is cost of living affecting other people's whisky buying habits? Would you stretch for those special bottles more or less than a couple of years ago?

Posted by Chris Ratcliff at 2025-01-10 15:09:25 UTC